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Minyanville Founder and CEO Todd Harrison dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Holy cow, can it be any slower out there? I'm taking a break from trying to set the all-time record for meetings on a "slow" summah Friday to offer a quick take on a few topics.

Will Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) get married over the weekend?

• There hasn't been any price talk on Lehman so even if it happens, it's a bit of a crap shoot. Remember Minyans, Bear Stearns was taken over too.
  
  
• There is no doubt franchise value and a lot of smart people at Lehman. There's also a lot of baggage on their balance sheet. It -- like most of the financials -- is a double-edged sword.

Minyanville Professor Minyan Peter dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

As many people have heard before, there are only two times a company issues common stock: When it absolutely has to or when it is stupid not to.

Well yesterday's issuance by US Airways (NYSE: LCC) may represent that once in a lifetime opportunity to see those seemingly contradictory principles in action at the same time. Having seen its stock trade at $1.45 not a month ago, $8.50 must seem pretty sweet to US Airways management, particularly with strong technical resistance at $10.00 providing a pretty strong ceiling above.

With airline stocks trading as the most leveraged play on the price declines in oil, I can understand why US Airways management took advantage of the window being open to issue stock. But just because the issuance window is open, doesn't mean investors should jump.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

Minyanville Professor Quint Tatro dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

There are a few things I am watching for today to give me better clues as to the internal character of the market.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT): It's off on retail numbers after the stock broke out of a four-month consolidation pattern on good volume. If the stock catches a bid, it is an indication that institutional investors are back stalking retail plays and would be bullish for the general market.

Energy ETF (AMEX: XLE): Energy has recently broken a longer term trend going back to mid-2006. It is bouncing off recent lows on very light volume. If money continues to rotate out of this sector, finding a home in the likes of retail, housing and financials, again a bullish sign. I initiated a short position in XLE this morning.

Financial ETF (AMEX: XLF): Financials have been and will continue to be the key to the market's future. After recapturing the 50-day moving average, this ETF is being brought down by AIG (AIG) and needs to regain its footing. Some consolidation is fine, but anything back below $20 would have me heading back towards the bunker.

Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB): The homebuilders continue to perk up and also remain a key to the future of the tape. They are probing green today above their 50-day moving average on decent early volume. A break here above yesterday's high going on to attack the $19.00 level is also a bullish sign.

These are things I am watching for which will give me my clues to start wading back into the market with real capital.

(Prof. Tatro has positions in WMT, XLE, XLF, XHB).

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

While Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) is starting to get compellingly cheap on a valuation basis. It's also supposed to be one of those names that beats numbers like clockwork. AKAM's forward numbers are still sporting plenty of growth, but they have been lowered. Now many analysts will also lower numbers.

Unfortunately, we're not in a market that is looking forward. It's discounting companies that "could" have a re-acceleration of growth when the economy materially picks up steam again, or when the world realizes that we're not in recession/depression. The market we're in still overly punishes stocks that "feel" like they might have the bad news mostly (or fully) priced in. AKAM around $30 was feeling like a miss that was priced in. However, after hours the stock traded down a quick $5-6 and from this current level the near term direction will likely be determined by how much love is still left in the analyst community. If the analysts defend the name we could see a quick snapback.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) crushes and I still think it's the best chip name on the planet. But as stated yesterday, I was worried about muted guidance and BRCM talked margins down, while guiding rev's higher.

This morning the stock surged off its after-hours low last night and I'm not sure how it pushed down into the $24's. Frankly I wish I had been in front of my trading station at that time, even though it has drifted lower as the day has progressed.

Bottom line, post earnings I'm back to being a buyer on weakness and feel anything in the $25's is an excellent entry, long term and/or even shorter term.

Disclosure: Position in BRCM.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The Brocade Communications (NASDAQ: BRCD) deal is interesting for a couple reasons. First of all -- hey it's a deal. So yes, deals can still get done, even in this market.

Second, and more importantly, BRCD is paying $3 billion or almost exactly three times the cash and investments on Foundry Networks' (NASDAQ: FDRY) books. So in essence, 1/3 of the deal price is being funded by the liquidity of Foundry Networks balance sheet. Looking at the technology landscape, there are a whole bunch of companies that look like FDRY from a balance sheet perspective.

Also, this deal highlights the fact that even in a market full of angst, companies do look forward to see what business trends they want to exploit. My take is BRCD is seeing it wants a bigger part of the bandwidth pie going forward and the two companies may have complementary technology to help extend their current reach.

Minyanville Professor David Miller dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Professor Miller,

I just saw news of Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK)'s and Schering Plough Corporation (NYSE: SGP)'s Vytorin not meeting their goal of heart study. Approximately 40% of Schering Plough's profit comes from this joint venture. Do you think pharmaceutical companies put too many eggs in one basket? Do they have a choice?

Minyan T.

MT,

They do have a choice, but the decision is to focus only on blockbuster drugs – which are a dying breed in this age of increased focus on personalized medicine. But the study is not as big of a disaster as some are saying. The main goal of aortic thickening is not as important to this drug as reductions in atherosclerotic events, which was positive in favor of Vytorin.

Basically, MRK/SGP tried to extend the market for Vytorin by this study in a place few thought it would work. They overextended, which is the bad news. The good news is the study confirmed the drug works to reduce cardiac events related to fat in the arteries, which is what the drug is primarily prescribed for.

-Professor Miller

Editor's Note: This post was written by Terry Woo, one of Minyanville's sharpest minds AND/OR brightest bulbs. For more perspective AND/OR insight, visit www.minyanville.com.

Crude oil is trading lower for a third day in a row.

Currently there's talk out there of demand destruction in other countries (i.e. China's slowing economic growth and slowing U.S. economy). But I don't think there has been enough coverage on financial television regarding Iran.

Remember crude's breakout when the world speculated Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. And remember more upward pressure when Iran retaliated by test firing its long-range missiles.

As reported by CNN yesterday, Undersecretary of State William Burns is accompanying an EU delegation and will meet with a top Iranian nuclear official... something that hasn't happened in decades! It's a game changing event. That combined with North Korea (cooperating with the world in giving up its pursuit of nuclear weapons), I believe this is simply the Iranian risk premium being taken out of the price of oil.

Minyanville's top dog, Todd Harrison, dares to ask in public what Wall Street types quietly consider in private. For more insight and ideas, visit www.Minyanville.com.

Yikes, Lehman downgrades Scripps (NYSE: SNI), Gannett (NYSE: GCI) pooped the bed. What the heck is happening to these paltry little rags?

Some thoughts:

• The internet is the single biggest deflationary force ever invented and the "information deflation" is in full force.
  
• Without a doubt, my bullish bent on the newspaper names was my single worst "call" of the year.
  
• The thesis was that portals will buy the papers to feed content into their pipes.
  
• That remains a viable option for some of the franchise properties, although it will seemingly happen -- if it happens -- from lower levels.
  
• I still own some GCI January calls but have quickly become lottery tickets.

R.P.

Position In GCI

Minyanville's Mr. Practical dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

There's lot of speculation today following former Fed official Poole's comments on what exactly constitutes solvency for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). The definition of solvent is the ability to pay back debt. Lenders may be willing to lend money to the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), thus keeping them from declaring bankruptcy, but that is not solvency.

Solvency connotes the ability to be a continuous, sustainable institution because there are positive margins in production. At current borrowing costs, the GSEs are not making money. Unless margins widen, they will not be able to pay back debt, save for the government stepping in and indemnifying that debt.

So while the GSEs may continue to exist, because the business model does not work, they're likely to exist in a different form. Namely a government entity using taxpayer money to pay back debt and issue mortgages.

Minyanville Professor Adam Michael dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

One of the top stories on Bloomberg today discusses a problem I have highlighted multiple times in the Ville over the past year: the accelerating decline of Mexico's Cantarell oil field. The latest numbers show Cantarell oil production falling to a 12-year low. I expect the decline in production from Cantarell to only accelerate.

If I am correct, crude oil supply for the United States is going to get tighter in the coming months. Today, we found out Pemex was having problems meeting commitments to Texas refineries due to falling production. I expect this problem to get more press in the future as Cantarell production accelerates to the downside and US refiners are forced to look to an already tight oil market for additional supply.

The Commitment of Traders report comes out today due to the holiday last week. The last COT report for crude oil showed commercials net buyers (first time since February 2007) and one has to wonder why...perhaps commercial traders see the coming collapse in Mexico oil production? I have repeatedly said the COT reports are still bullish for crude and am looking forward to seeing this weeks report when it is released later today.

My favorite energy names continue to be BPZ Energy (AMEX:BZP) and Pacific Rubiales (PEG:CA), both of whom have catalysts in the next month that could move the stocks.

On a housekeeping note, the Hindenburg signal and head and shoulders patterns I highlighted in the S&P and Russell 2000 seem to be playing out. My minimum target on the S&P500 is/was about 1225, which also happens to be in the neighborhood of the 2006 lows.

Minyanville's top dog, Todd Harrison, dares to ask in public what Wall Street types quietly consider in private. For more insight and ideas, visit www.minyanville.com.

Lot's going on today as I juggle the end of June. With time constraints on both sides of this screen in mind, I humbly offer the following thoughts:

• I covered the incremental "fade" exposure in Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (put out near the opening) and I'm now in watch mode.
  
  
• It's tough to tell how much of the big beta action is quarter-end proppage and how much is legitimate demand. As I covered my American Express (NYSE: AXP) earlier--and continue to have exposure in Wachovia (NYSE: WB)--I'm leaving it on for the time being (and yes, subject to change).
  
  
• And yeah, I'm trading around that ugly duckling--nibbling under $15 and trading the swings. There's no putting lipstick on that pig--using it as my vehicle of choice has thus far been wrong. It ain't over till our interns sing, however, so I'm fighting the good fight.
  
  
• That sorta brings up the question du jour: Are we gonna see quarterly inflows... or quarterly outflows?
  
  
• The upside seems begrudging. Of course, after the decline we've seen, you'd be grudging too if you were Hoofy.
  
  
• Somebody call Armond Goldman! l I'm starting the South Beach Diet on Monday, lest anyone wonders what is happening to my sense of humor.
  
  
• The scariest thing on my screen? The VXO is down 6% today. I repeat, the VXO is down 6% today. Ruh roh...

R.P.

Minyanville Professor Adam Warner dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

Minyanville Professor Adam Katz dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

I've said it before: the second quarter is going to be the inverse of the first. Expectations going in were simply too high.

What I find interesting is that Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL), Red Hat (NYSE: RHT) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) have all taken down guidance due to the sluggishness they're starting to see in their businesses.

What the Street seems to be ignoring is that the dollar has been crushed for over a year now, which means that the currency tailwind is only getting weaker as the year drags on. If one uses $1.55 euro per dollar as a benchmark, the second-quarter effect was a 14% year-over-year currency tailwind.

In the third quarter, that drops to 10%; in the fourth, it will drop to 5%. Add in macroeconomic headwinds -- along with the fact that credit markets have been pushed back into a state of mild panic -- and it's a surefire recipe for a very tumultuous back half of the year.

I'm looking hard for reasons to be optimistic, but they seem to be thin on the ground. In the information technology (IT) sector, at least, we'll likely see a meaningful budget flush at the end of the year - if only because they'll be cut in a big way starting in 2009. This means that IT managers, if they even think they might need anything over the next year or so, need to use or lose whatever's left in their 2008 budgets come the fourth quarter.

This will create an environment where people will be calling the bottom for IT in the fourth quarter - but it's more likely to be the last hurrah before the bottom drops out.

Position in RHT